NASCAR pick: NASCAR Cup Series AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 in Texas Best Bets, odds to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook

The long strokes continue to pass. The Best Bets article didn’t predict the specific long shot winner for the second week in a row at Bristol (it had Brad Keselowski at +10,000), but the strategy was once again correct. The Next Gen car is a mess and it’s getting messier every week. Long live the long shot. As always, trust the spreadsheet, but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 in Texas, which kicks off Sunday, September 25 at 3:30 p.m. ET.

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A 500 mile race in the Next Gen car. What could go wrong? For one thing, there will be plenty of mechanical breakdowns on Sunday, but 500 miles offers enough time for some top riders to ride out unfortunate events. Still, the random volatility multiplied by the excessive number of spins opens Victory Lane up for a possible long shot. On the other hand, 500 miles in Texas requires luck and a very strong car that can only be built by the top teams. Bubba Wallace won a 400 mile race in Kansas, but he belongs to a top team.

The key in Texas is to avoid chasing after a Hail Mary and find good underpriced gear. The devaluation could be due to a number of reasons, but it doesn’t fully reflect the speed and handling of the car.

Race winner — AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500

Kyle Busch +900

These are not the longest odds, but they are very attractive given the circumstances. Busch suffered two engine failures in three weeks. It could happen again and that’s one reason the ratings are depressed. Its engine might also be good, and if so, +900 is too long.

Toyotas have been the best cars this season — when they’re not exploding. Busch didn’t lose a step. In fact, he had the best car in Texas in the All-Star race in the spring. Not only will Busch have the setup, but he’s running for the wins. He’s out of the playoffs and out of this car in two months. Speed ​​and drive should make Busch a favorite in Texas.

Joey Logano +2000

These odds seem very long for a driver with multiple victories this season. Is the No. 22 Penske Ford the best car around? No, but who cares? Was Chris Buescher’s car the best when he won or was Bubba Wallace the best the week before? Erik Jones, anyone? There have been 20 winners this season counting the All-Star race. Logano is absolutely pretty fast and taking him to +2000 is shocking, but it once again reveals just how open the 2022 season is – for better or worse – with the Jalopy Next Gen.

Put Bristol to the side and Logano has been one of the top 3 drivers, if not the best driver, on traditional ovals for the past two months. In Michigan, Logano earned a Dietrich Data score of 0.83 (my own full metric that sums up a driver’s full run – 1.00 is a perfect score). He followed that run with a 1.00 at Richmond, an .89 at Darlington and an .89 at Kansas. This metric reflects speed and skill. Aside from luck, these are the two factors that most influence winning or not.

For NASCAR insight and quick betting tips, follow Pearce Dietrich (@race4theprize) on Twitter.

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Head to head matches

Chris Buescher +270 vs. Ryan Blaney

It’s rare for DraftKings to offer a significant underdog in a game. Buescher won last week, so DraftKings Sportsbook wants to play on that notoriety. Buescher should not be able to compete in Texas. It’s his home track, but the Penske cars are stronger than the RFK cars on the middle tracks – Blaney won the Texas All-Star race.

That being said. It’s 2022. Buescher can run a normal race and Blaney can suffer a mechanical failure, tire failure, spin, wreck or run into someone else’s wreck. Anything can happen in 2022. It’s just a bet against Blaney at great odds.

Kyle Larson -115 against Christopher Bell

Texas is not interesting but it is unique. This is an extreme one-groove track. Setup is critical to success and, for the most part, more important than driver skill. New Texas (different banks at opposite ends of the track – 2017 to present) is a challenge for top teams. Kyle Larson never had much luck riding the Chip Ganassi gear on this unconventional intermediate track. That changed after his suspension when he signed with Hendrick Motorsports. In his first race in Texas after the suspension, he won (All-Star Race 2021). In his next race at Texas, he again won and led 256 laps in that fall race. Bell is having a good season, but so is Larson and Texas has become a great track for him now that he’s in exceptional gear.

Kyle Busch +100 on Chase Elliott

In Texas’ last seven races, Busch has two wins and six top 10 finishes. In those seven races, Busch has the highest average driver rating. Prior to the two engine failures and a penalty that caused Kansas to spin, Busch was a top-5 driver at traditional ovals dating back to early May.

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All betting odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds are subject to change.

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