The value of things: playing with quarterbacks

It is difficult to remain impassive against quarterbacks. It is the most important position on the football field and perhaps the most important position in all professional sports. Teams don’t blink to pay a good one over 20% of their team’s overall payroll. If you want to be somewhere for a while, you can start an argument about two quarterbacks and which one was better.

So going through a method similar to what we did with the other positions just isn’t going to do the trick. This is especially true when it comes to Davis Mills. After all, he was just a rookie and he had to deal with a ton of malfunctions and a lousy roster. All of this is true. Still, there will be an argument at the bottom of this article. It has happened before and it will happen again.

This article is going to be divided into three sections. The first section will compare Tyrod Taylor and Kyle Allen. Did the Texans improve their backup position at the start of this season? The second section will compare Mills with other quarterbacks who looked like him as a rookie. Finally, we will go with the same category “What’s missing” that we have with the other positions. I guess one will be the source of disagreement.

Compare backups

Both Allen and Taylor have served as starters in this league, but neither has served in the past two years. We’ll go back four seasons on both players, but only one of them was a qualifying season. So, let’s take a look at the numbers and see what we can decipher on our backup quarterback situation.

Tyrod Taylor—59.2, 59.4, 66.0. 47.0

Kyle Allen—65.9, 68.5, 49.773.8

Only one of those seasons was a qualifying season. This must be alarming as it is the worst season among the eight. There is therefore reason to be alarmed. However, if 60 is the league average performance, we see that Taylor has only had one season in the past four where he was better than average. Allen only had one season where he wasn’t.

Taylor only has three seasons where he qualified as a regular quarterback. They were all 70 or older, but they also performed more than five seasons ago. It looks like the Texans have improved their quarterback room. Allen has had more recent success than Taylor and he also looks more like Mills than Taylor.

One of the things I’ve never understood is why teams can’t find a second quarterback similar to their starter. This allows you to use the same playbook in an emergency and allows your team to have more continuity. Of course, having a third quarterback who could bring something different isn’t necessarily a bad idea. Kevin Hogan and Jeff Driscoll aren’t really that guy, so we’ll move on.

What can we expect from Mills?

One of the things I mentioned in a previous article is the concept of similarity scores. It’s a great concept that we use in baseball to compare similar players. The general idea is that we can emotionally attach to our heroes and inflate or deflate their accomplishments depending on the nature of our emotional attachment. We can do the same in football.

Of course, we’re comparing Mills to guys who’ve been through a good chunk of their careers already. This is likely to cause hurt feelings in one way or another. Quarterbacks tend to do that. So what we’re going to do here is compare Mills with five quarterbacks who had similar seasons to their first season as a qualifying starter. Then we’ll see what they did in their first five seasons as a starter. Hopefully we can get something out of these numbers.

Kirk Cousins: 58.1, 70.8, 80.6, 70.0, 79.3

Andy Dalton: 62.2, 63.7, 70.6. 66.5, 80.4

Keenum Cases: 60.9, 59.9, 81.4, 70.0, 55.0

Brian Hoyer: 59.0, 61.5, 79.8, 63.6, N/A

Nick Foles: 56.5, 78.3, 64.7, 58.8, 73.2

As a reminder, Mills came in at 59.5 last season. All of these quarterbacks arrived in different situations. Some had better teams than others. The idea is to see what happens overall. If we take these five quarterbacks and take their composite scores from grades one through five. This might give us an idea of ​​what we can expect from Mills moving forward.

Composite: 59.3, 66.8, 75.4, 65.8, 72.0

We can therefore expect an improvement from Mills. Part of that is the connection you have with each of the guys above. Four of the five are current backups in the league. The obvious conclusion is that Mills is destined to be a backup. Of course, there’s no way to know if that’s true. He could be the next Kirk Cousins. That’s always the fun part of this whole thing. Eleven of the 24 recorded seasons were seasons where those five scored 70 or more. So there’s a reasonable hope that Mills can produce that as early as next season. These guys obviously peaked in their third season, so there’s hope.

What is missing

My opinion is worth neither more nor less than that of others. After all, I am not a football coach, scout or executive. I just know a little about the numbers and I know what I see. Davis Mills looks like an average starting quarterback or good backup quarterback. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that. People hear the word average and they automatically recoil. The average is just that. Medium. There are as many guys below you as there are above you.

The question is whether you can go as far as you need with an average quarterback. Of course, that would require a bit of study that we can do later this summer. For now we’ll go with the gut and my gut tells me we’re going to be looking at one of the top two or three quarterbacks in the 2023 draft. I could definitely be wrong and life would be better if I was wrong .

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